The future of heavy oils
Supply and demand dynamics for heavy oil are critical to global crude trade flows, yet oil demand, supply at risk and the resulting refining response are causing immense uncertainty for key players and investors.
Our multi-client study, 'Through the looking glass: The future of heavy oil', identifies and examine the most important factors affecting the global heavy oil market to 2035.
We test a number of scenarios, including:
Supply at risk: We consider the market impact of a global shortfall in heavy oil production
Global oil demand: Laying the foundation for any supply forecast is a view on global crude oil demand. We test our base case growth view along with a low case.
Refining Response: Supply and demand for heavy oil informs a view in each scenario on the type of refinery investments that can be expected through the forecast period.
Major Pipelines: We measure the impact of Canadian projects (namely Keystone XL, Energy East, and Northern Gateway) on global heavy oil trade flows.
US export policy: We test the potential impact a lifting of the ban would have on crude oil trade flows.
Marine pollution standards: Measuring the impact of tighter MARPOL sulphur specifications.
The study provides the insight to help you make smarter commercial decisions in the heavy oil market, offering answers to key questions, including:
- How can I get the best value for my oil sands production?
- How can I protect myself as current sources of refining supply decline?
- What is the best market for my future production?
- Can I secure supply and maintain coker margin?
- Can my refining interests continue to be competitive?
- Will I be able to source enough haeavy oil to support my refinery investment?
- What will be the future demand for crude oil (by quality)?
Darren Smith, Head of Downstream Consulting, Asia Pacific