Harris v Trump: A fork in the road for US energy

A lot is at stake in this November’s US election, not least the future of US energy. Under Kamala Harris, the US can expect continuing support and even expansion of the clean energy policies pursued by the Biden administration. Under Trump, climate concerns will be abandoned in favour of boosting domestic fossil fuel production and consumption. 

Our insight The 2024 US election: A fork in the road for US energy policy presents the key areas set to be shaped by the outcome of the presidential race. 

Fill out the form at the top of the page to download a complimentary copy of this  report – or read on for an overview of the key implications for North American coal, gas, and power.  

Permitting reform 

In late July, the Senate Committee on Energy & Natural Resources advanced the bipartisan Energy Permitting Reform Act of 2024 (EPRA). This legislation aims to accelerate development of domestic energy infrastructure by streamlining the federal permitting process. It includes fossil fuel projects as well as renewable energy, transmission and grid reliability.  

Despite general agreement on the need for permitting reform, the broad nature of the bill is an issue. It’s best chance of passing may be as part of a Continuing Resolution before the end of the current congressional session. A Trump White House or Republican-controlled Congress could also favour the bill, given the ex-president’s focus on ‘energy dominance’. In contrast, a Harris presidency or Democrat-controlled Congress may be more likely to prefer a new bill that targets renewables and/or grid improvements independently of gas pipelines and other oil and gas infrastructure. 

LNG policy 

The Department of Energy (DOE) pause on liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permits, pending an analysis of climate, economic and community impacts, has made the future of US LNG a key issue in this election cycle. At the same time, recent court decisions have also caused potential delays to projects either awaiting final investment decision or already under construction.  

If Trump wins, the pause on export permits will end immediately, and the DOE’s analysis will have no long-term impact. Permitting at both the DOE and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), which has slowed under Biden, is likely to speed up. If Harris wins, on the other hand, it’s more likely an extended permitting process could be changed to include more challenging criteria and rules.  

Regardless of the winner, the need to restaff the relevant department of the DOE before renewing approvals mean it could be H2 2025 before any new licences are granted. Some US LNG developers may struggle to survive a long wait for approval or negotiate a more rigorous process, which could shake up the current project queue.  

Greenhouse gas emissions standards 

Earlier this year, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) finalised new greenhouse gas (GHG) emission standards for existing coal generation as well as for new gas plants. Under Harris, the EPA would move forward with implementing these rules and would likely also address emissions for existing gas generation, a category currently omitted. The standards for existing coal steam units planning to stay in service after 2039 are based on a 90% carbon capture rate, so some coal capacity could be retired early. However, most middle-aged coal-fired power stations will be retired by then anyway. 

In contrast to Harris, Trump would repeal the finalised GHG emissions standards if elected. Under his watch, the EPA could even challenge the decades-old “Endangerment Finding” that requires it to regulate carbon emissions in the first place. 

Downwind pollution 

Published in 2023, the EPA’s Good Neighbor Plan (GNP) aims to address emissions from power plants in upwind states that affect air quality in downwind states. Following legal challenges, the Supreme Court has stayed implementation of the GNP pending judicial review (states must still comply with the existing Cross State Air Pollution Rule). A Harris administration would defend the GNP and pursue implementation. Trump would be happy to see it flounder and could even repeal it, although the EPA currently has an obligation under the Clean Air Act to curb emissions from upwind states. 

Methane emissions 

The Methane Emissions Reduction Plan was established in early 2024 thanks to new authorities granted to the EPA under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). As well as regulations aimed at emissions reduction, it includes fees on excess methane emissions. However, the programme has proven politically divisive and is already facing multiple legal challenges. Harris would defend the rules the Plan creates, while a Trump administration would probably roll back or weaken them.  

Regardless of the election outcome, however, reducing rogue emissions in natural gas operations is already a priority for the industry thanks to policy being implemented outside the US. In particular, the European Union’s recently approved methane regulation creates an incentive for gas industry players to reduce methane emissions, since responsibly sourced, “cleaner” gas exported to the bloc is likely to secure a price premium. 

Finally, it’s worth noting that both the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and US commitments to the Paris Climate Agreement could be affected by the US election outcome. The potential impact on renewables growth would have implications for coal and gas generation – you can find out more in the full insight.  

Don’t forget to fill out the form at the top of the page to download your complimentary copy of this insight, which covers these themes in more detail and includes a range of charts.