Libya’s oil blockade – and the million b/d loss in exports

Libya is fast approaching the 10-year anniversary of its first civil war and the disruption that was unleashed. Oil production has been extremely volatile, and the travails over the current oil export blockade highlight just how unpredictable Libya is. If the country is able to reach a political and security settlement, we think the oil industry recovery could follow three broad stages. The first is a simple re-opening of wells, flow-lines and exports. The second stage is operations-focused basic maintenance, well-workovers and simple fixes. The third stage requires a return of meaningful investment to expand capacity. For the international oil companies (IOC) operating in Libya, it has been a case of hanging on and hoping for a return to stability. If the above-ground situation improves and production recovers we could see some consolidation as companies revisit their appetite to invest in a meaningful way in their Libyan assets.