Discuss your challenges with our solutions experts
Contact an Expert
For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.
MENA in Brief – February 2020
Libya has been in a state of civil war since 2011, but the situation has escalated with a blockade on oil exports from 18 January bringing production down by nearly 1 million b/d. In this episode, I'm joined by Libya upstream analyst Toushar Chakrabarty to discuss the impact of this development.
Libya is fast approaching the 10-year anniversary of its first civil war and the disruption that was unleashed. Oil production has been extremely volatile, and the travails over the current oil export blockade highlight just how unpredictable Libya is. If the country is able to reach a political and security settlement, we think the oil industry recovery could follow three broad stages. The first is a simple re-opening of wells, flow-lines and exports. The second stage is operations-focused basic maintenance, well-workovers and simple fixes. The third stage requires a return of meaningful investment to expand capacity. For the international oil companies (IOC) operating in Libya, it has been a case of hanging on and hoping for a return to stability. If the above-ground situation improves and production recovers we could see some consolidation as companies revisit their appetite to invest in a meaningful way in their Libyan assets.