Insight

Carbon-constrained scenario 2018: Navigating a challenging path to lower global emissions

David Brown

Get this report

$4,000

You can pay by card or invoice

Contact us

Submit your details to receive further information about this report.

For details on how your data is used and stored, see our Privacy Notice.
 

- Available as part of a subscription
- FAQ's about online orders

23 October 2018

Carbon-constrained scenario 2018: Navigating a challenging path to lower global emissions

Report summary

The energy transition is creating a range of uncertainties across the value chain. Quickly de-risk your long-term strategy by accessing our assumptions, milestones, and conclusions on what an accelerated energy transition means. 

Who wins and who loses if the energy transition accelerates?

In this report, we answer the energy industry's top three questions about accelerated decarbonisation: 

  1. If technology trends accelerate, what does that mean for fossil fuel demand in general and peak oil demand in particular?
  2. What emissions cuts are required to achieve the 2-degree outlook?
  3. How will faster growth of renewables impact coal, gas, and nuclear?

Even the carbon constrained scenario falls well short of the ‘2 degrees Celsius world’ of the IEA SDS trajectory. To get there, much more will need to happen beyond the power sector.

David Brown

Senior Product Manager, Cross Commodity Research

David is based in Houston and manages our gas, power and coal markets teams; he leads the Energy Markets Service.

Latest articles by David

View David Brown's full profile

Picture this: accelerated decarbonisation 

  • A lower-carbon future is the result; a world in which coal demand has already peaked and will head into inexorable decline.
  • A future for gas which is positive through 2040, though not without signs that renewables could eventually curtail the need for the lowest-carbon of fossil fuels.
  • An outlook for oil which sees growth until 2031, but declines thereafter, as the electrification of the global vehicle fleet gathers pace.

What's new?

In the 2018 carbon constrained scenario, we build on 2017's analysis with new depth and breadth of insight. You'll get: 

  • An outline of the major assumptions behind the faster growth of electric vehicles
  • In-depth analysis of the impact on coal
  • An overview of the major governmental and commerical milestones that could accelerate the energy transition

Table of contents

  • No table of contents specified

Tables and charts

No table or charts specified

What's included

This report contains:

  • Document

    Carbon-constrained scenario 2018: Navigating a challenging path to lower global emissions

    PDF 2.32 MB

  • Document

    Carbon-constrained scenario 2018: Navigating a challenging path to lower global emissions

    ZIP 2.29 MB

  • Document

    Wood Mackenzie Carbon Constrained Scenario 2018.pdf (1)

    PDF 1.85 MB