Energy transition outlook
Wood Mackenzie’s modelling of energy transition pathways and the route to net zero
Download the complimentary executive summary
Reducing global emissions to pre-industrial levels and achieving net zero is one of the greatest challenges facing humankind. The energy transition currently underway is about a transformational switch away from fossil fuels and into cleaner, renewable sources of energy.
Accelerating the energy transition is critical to halting climate change and limiting its damaging impact. But the path to net zero is complex, incorporating all aspects of global energy and natural resources systems.
Our energy transition scenarios
Wood Mackenzie’s energy transition outlook report (part of our Energy Transition Service) maps three different routes through the energy transition with increasing levels of ambition – but also difficulty and investment. They are our independent assessment of what it would take to deliver on countries’ announced net zero pledges and potential outcomes for the planet.
Our scenarios
Base case
Base case
Our assessment of the most likely outcome based on current policies and technologies increasing with ambition but reflecting challenges and inertia built into many existing energy systems.
Country pledges
Country pledges
Our view of how countries’ existing emissions targets is achieved, roughly in line with a 2-degree warming trajectory.
Net zero 2050
Net zero 2050
A credible pathway of how the 2015 Paris Agreement of 1.5 degree warming by 2100 is achieved.
Credible interpretations of possible futures
These scenarios are based on cross-sector and multi-commodity modelling. They integrate our analyses of power and renewables, upstream and downstream oil and gas, metals and mining and emerging technologies, including electro-mobility, low-carbon hydrogen, CCUS and direct air capture, nature-based solutions, bio-energy and others.
We present both scenarios and outcomes, considering different versions of possible futures. The scenarios explore credible interpretations built on policy targets, technology choices and behavioural changes the world already appears to be making.
Regional focus
The energy transition is already underway. What could it mean for your business?
- How will global energy demand evolve in a low-carbon future?
- How will carbon regulation impact the chemicals sector?
- What does increasing EV penetration mean for the power sector?
To discuss these questions and more, talk to a consultant with expertise in your sector and region today.
